October 2024 Market Update
In September, the real estate market experienced a decline in overall sales, with a 17% drop compared to last year, totaling 2,003 units. This decrease was driven primarily by lower sales in the more affordable housing segment, which rising sales in the upper price ranges could not offset. Despite this decline, sales remained 16% above typical September levels.
New listings rose to 3,687 units, the highest since 2008. Improved inventory is gradually shifting conditions toward balance, with months of supply increasing to 2.5 months.
Home prices showed modest declines from the previous month, but the benchmark price of $596,900 remained over 5% higher year-over-year. Detached homes saw nearly 9% price growth, despite lower sales in the under $600,000 range, while apartment condominiums had the highest gains, with a 14% increase in prices. Rising new listings, particularly in higher price ranges, are helping alleviate some market pressures, but challenges in the lower-priced segment persist.
My Outlook Moving Forward
As we head into winter, I expect inventory, sales, and the average sales price to all fall. This is nothing out of the ordinary compared to previous years; even though there is still high demand in our housing market, a lack of motivation to move during the cold months seems to prevail.
Now for the interesting info: since December 2022, the total residential sales price in Calgary has grown by over 25%. The recent boom in our market has been completely driven by lack of supply and high demand; unlike other very strong markets like 2014, which was largely driven by the booming job market. In addition, Calgary has been seeing a massive amount of net migration and immigration, which has been forcing our housing market to skyrocket, both for purchasers and for renters.
As we approach the new year and anticipated rate cuts, I maintain my belief that our housing market is going to continue on an upward trajectory. The supply is struggling to keep pace with the high demand, mixed with continuous population growth and lower borrowing rates, I predict that the Spring market will kick off earlier next year and be just as, if not more, aggressive than Spring 2024.