April 2025 Market Update
March 2025 marked a notable shift in the market, with the first drop in average price for row-housing since Q3 of 2021. The average price declined from $482,000 to $472,000 in just one month, coinciding with a 25% increase in inventory for that segment. This is the only part of the market showing a price decline so far, so it doesn’t necessarily signal an immediate trend across other housing types.
Detached and semi-detached homes continue to show resilience, posting year-over-year gains of 4.7% and 3.7%, respectively—even amid rising inventory levels. These segments remain strong, driven by consistent demand from buyers seeking more space and long-term stability.
We may start to see a shift away from condominium properties. Whether apartments or townhomes, condos tend to carry higher risk and have historically offered lower returns, making them less attractive in uncertain or changing market conditions.
Interestingly, March also saw the highest ever recorded average price across the entire market, despite sales volume dropping nearly 20% year-over-year. This highlights the lingering momentum carried over from the past few years—momentum that continues to support pricing even as supply grows and buyer activity slows. Historically this has indicated market tops.
What will the Federal Election do to Calgary Real Estate?
With the upcoming Federal Election at the end of this month, the big question people are asking is what’s in store for the future of Alberta. I asked two contacts of mine in the Oil and Gas industry their opinion on what will happen given the two different scenarios we face. Here is what I got back:
“Amid ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and the relationship with our friends to the South, Canada is facing an upcoming election that is contentious on energy policy. Mark Carney, the Liberal Party candidate, has shared two-face views on Canadian energy. Primarily, in the East, he is adamant that new pipeline projects are not a priority, nor a concern. Whereas his campaign in the West has more so avoided the question regarding his support for the sector altogether. Notably, until becoming Prime Minister, Carney was formerly the United Nations’ Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, and spearheaded the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), an initiative that has drawn criticism regarding its restrictive stance on financing traditional energy companies and projects.
On the other hand, it seems the majority of support in Western Canada from resourced based provinces has been for the UCP leader, Pierre Poilievre. He has vocalized that permitting new infrastructure projects will require less time and attract the capital to build it, along with ending the uncertainty of an emissions cap.
Overall, Canadian energy is facing a problem of capital scarcity, whether it be individuals and corporations willing to take a risk to start something or invest. We need stability in commodity prices, but more importantly we need stability in a country whose citizens will promote the need for increased production and transport capacity. My view is that a UCP leader will enable energy companies to be more comfortable with taking on those necessary and beneficial projects. This will inevitably reduce Canadian’s cost of living while increasing the standard of living in developing countries by reducing export constraints and unleashing the export of Canadian natural resources abroad.”
Alberta’s future in the oil and gas sector remains uncertain. Calgary, a city largely built on the energy industry, has long depended on the wealth generated from resource extraction in the north. Under a continued Federal Liberal government, sentiment toward the energy sector is likely to remain negative. At the moment, Calgary’s housing market is being sustained not by wage growth or job creation, but by a wave of immigration and interprovincial migration. While the Liberals have pledged to increase affordable housing supply—a step in the right direction—we have yet to see meaningful progress on the homes that were promised.
Conversely, a shift to Conservative leadership—known for its pro-Alberta stance—could bring renewed confidence to both the energy sector and the housing market. If policies supportive of oil and gas development return, we could see increased investment, job creation, and overall economic momentum, all of which would support real estate values beyond just supply constraints. Whether one supports resource extraction or not, the reality is that we need to find cleaner, more efficient ways to do it—and Alberta has the expertise to lead that charge. A strong Alberta economy means a stronger Canada. More jobs and higher earnings have a proven trickle-down effect on local businesses, housing demand, and overall prosperity.
In summary, a Federal Liberal government may help address housing shortages through public spending on affordable builds, though implementation has been slow. A Conservative government, on the other hand, is more likely to incentivize private industry to build by reducing taxes and regulation—putting more money back into the hands of builders and buyers. If the Conservatives win at the federal level, Calgary’s real estate market could continue to post strong year-over-year gains, with less risk of a significant correction.
